Those of us with a political science background can sometimes be annoying chaps. For example, political science research suggests that campaigns matter very little, deciding only the closest of elections. Rather, underlying conditions (party identification balance, economy, incumbency, etc) pretty well determine the results of an election and the rest is just window dressing.
Campaign concerns probably did matter in 2000 (making it close enough that a bunch of questionable stuff in Florida could decide the election). 2004 likely had enough continued rally effect (the traditional tendency to stick with an incumbent when involved in a foreign policy situation) to favor Bush with little effect from campaigning. These two close contests may make us think we are due for another, but things have changed distinctly in the past 4 years. The mid-term results and the results of special elections early this year illustrated this.
Looking at the underlying conditions, three political scientists wrote this analysis saying that it is mistaken to consider this campaign close (though they do emphasize that things could change). Based on these conditions, Obama is headed to an easy victory that will not be changed by your standard campaign events. They feel the media is a bit irresponsible to claim otherwise (though we can understand why, they want excitement, and a blowout isn’t that).
While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed–historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months–point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.
Not only this, but we can look further into the future with some of these trends. The book The Millennial Makeover fits these trends into the theory of partisan realignment based on generational and technological shifts. Based on the developing preferences of the Millenial generation (born 1982-2003), the generation that will dominate politics over the coming 40 years, the Democrats will likely hold a dominant position. The fact that the Republican Party is screwed for the coming decades unless they make some quick and drastic changes around policy and tactics seems like a very underreported story. It isn’t simply an unpopular President and an unpopular war that hurts them. They just don’t have the policy positions (pretty much across the board) that the next politically dominant generation agrees with.
