Five weeks ago, I laid out my predictions for the election. Namely, Obama would win with at least 300 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote and the Democrats would expand their Senate majority to 56 seats (including Sanders but excluding Lieberman). This was before both conventions, before the Palin pick and the Republican post-convention bubble had people worried. I was never too concerned.
Now just five weeks from the election, I certainly stand by my predictions as conservative estimates of Democratic success. As always, there is no being sure about the future, though this year looks to mark a new high in people voting early. Many states have already started with early voting and many will join shortly. Thus, things that change late in the election matter less than ever.
